Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Analysts say technology and finance trends will drive residential solar.

A Goldman Sachs investment report draws from clean energy technology analysts to predict disruptive trends for utilities and energy savings for consumers.
  • First, Tesla’s giant manufacturing facility will soon begin pumping out lithium ion batteries to be used in both Tesla vehicles and renewable energy storage units. The cost of said batteries should drop to $125/KWh by 2020, from a current price of more than $200/KWh, and dropping 3% each year thereafter.  This represents a potentially a disruptive technology for utilities.
  • The cost of solar panels continues to fall. Goldman says we can expect an average reduction of 3% annually here as well.
Though nothing is imminent, Goldman Sachs analysts lay out three reasons why the utility market is heading in the direction of  "grid defection" (people leaving the grid).

“Ultimately the holy grail of solar is to move to a situation where the customer is no longer tied to the grid at all. This may be far off, aside from entailing a much more expensive solar/battery system, this is also potentially out of people’s comfort zone entailing a 100% reliance on a new system for their electricity needs. That said, decreased reliability from an aging distribution infrastructure, a broadening desire to reduce the carbon footprint, and perhaps most importantly, the reduction of solar panel and battery costs could also work together to make grid independence a reality for many customers one day.”


A Green Tech column in Forbes cites solar leases which make it possible for homeowners to pay little or no money down to have a set of solar panels installed on their roofs. Instead of forking over, say, $20,000 to install and own the equipment, they pay a fee each month for using the electricity produced from the panels. Homeowners typically sign a long-term contract of 15 to 20 years with the companies that pay for solar equipment and labor and make sure the solar panels work properly during the lifetime of the contract.

Read more:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2013/02/11/solar-leases-will-propel-solar-home-growth-to-5-7b/